January 2022 Monthly Note

Predictions for everyone!

            Keeping in mind Yogi Berra’s cautionary note about predictions being tough to make, especially about the future, let’s make some predictions about 2022.

Congress

            President Biden is going to keep trying to be president of Congress instead of President of the United States.  He should stop worrying about trivia like Senate rules; that should be left to hoi polloi like Senators and you and me.

            Team Biden’s campaign for voting reform will collapse almost as soon as it starts.  The voting rights push will eventually be reduced to a fix of the Electoral Count Act.  There’s no telling how that will get spun as a win.

            Senate Majority Leader Schumer will fail to alter Senate Rule 22.  As a reminder, that rule, which requires 60 votes to proceed to a question in the United States Senate, is designed to protect senators from votes they would rather not take.  Most senators understand that, and are also aware that the rule gives them outsized leverage in the event they need it.

            The 60-vote requirement also has the salutary side effect of calming the immediate and ephemeral passions.

            Before the continuing resolution for FY 22 expires on February 18th, Congress will extend it one more time, probably for the remainder of the fiscal year.  There is the possibility of one more extension (like to the Easter recess in mid-April).  At a certain point, however, you have to give up; the fiscal year is half over by April 1.

            February 18th is also probably the likely final deadline for the BBB.  After it collapses for the final time, the Senate Democrats will migrate the surviving pieces to a FY 2023 omnibus.  It will include an extension of the child tax credit with some means testing and perhaps work requirements.  The important thing for progressives is that the precedent of free cash for kids is established; means testing and other strictures can and will become attenuated over time.

            The omnibus will also include the expansion and extension of the energy tax credits, and a means-tested EV tax credit (probably without the union bonus).  Direct pay will be included.

            The SALT deduction cap will not be changed.

            The State of Union, scheduled to be held on March 1 (for context the previous latest date was President Obama who gave his State of the Union on February 12th in 2013), will be among the longest in history and will come in the wake of the failed efforts on the federalization of voting and building back better.  That will place the President in the uncomfortable position of reminding everyone of recent failures (which is why you tend to have State of the Union addresses early in the year, before you start collecting failures).

            The progressives will continue to wait for legislation that taxes the rich, federalizes elections, empowers unions, gives statehood to DC and Puerto Rico, “reforms” the police, increases the number of Supreme Court justices, kills the filibuster (technically a Senate rule not a law), etc., etc.  I know I’ve written all this before, but it’s kind of a fun paragraph to write, especially since we predicted that none of that would happen last January.

            The idiocy among the Republicans will continue.  The media “stars” among the congressional Republicans are those least able to shepherd a coherent thought, let alone a coherent ideology or a coherent legislative program.

            The Administration and their Congressional allies will prioritize Senate confirmation of nominees.  As the days of Democratic control of the Senate dwindle down to a precious few, there will be an emphasis on clearing the executive calendar and filling the executive and judicial branches. 

            This effort will also be complicated by the routine (but disruptive) midterm departures from the Administration.  Assistant secretaries, who are the front-line political leaders of Departments, routinely stay less than two years (the average is about 18 months), meaning that Administrations are always in a recruitment cycle.  Team Biden’s slow start (only about 355 of his appointees were confirmed in the first year, compared to 450 for Obama and 505 for Bush). will exacerbate that challenge.

            The ability of Congress to work deep into this year will be compromised by Members’ desire to get home and campaign.  This problem will be especially acute in 2022, as the Biden Administration fades and as numerous House Democrats will be at risk.

            The Congressional schedule will be compressed next year.  Spending the first quarter on the lost causes of voting reform and BBB, combined with the desire of Members to get home and campaign before the elections will mean that the FY 2023 budget cycle and consideration of the FY 2023 National Defense Authorization Act will be shortened.

            Consequently, anticipate that the previously-noted FY 2023 omnibus (including the remnants of Hurricane BBB) will get done, but not much else will.

            There will be a lame duck session in which Democrats will try to clear the executive calendar (confirmations).  Senate Republicans will talk for a long time about how they will work to make sure that doesn’t happen, but will ultimately help the Democrats clear the calendar.

            Expect an increase in the regulatory pace of the federal government.  As Congress works a short schedule in an election year, Team Biden will have no options but to engage on the regulatory side.

            With respect to previews of 2023, Senate Republican leadership has already said that it has no intention of providing any clarity with respect to its policy preferences in the event they preside over the Senate.  In the absence of affirmative messages, the Republicans, who could not be bothered to construct a platform in 2020, nor execute any sort of formal assessment as to why they lost in 2020, will default to being opposed to whatever the other side is doing.

            House Republicans have said that they plan to focus on oversight, which means they, too, have nothing in mind in particular.

            Mr. Biden and his team will, of course, use that steady stream of negativity against congressional Republicans during the 2024 cycle.

            At some point this year, it will become clear that Speaker Pelosi and her team will not be returning in 2023.  The inevitability of leadership change will also slow Congressional processes.

Elections

            The elections will be upon us sooner than you think.  November 8 is less than ten months away, and the first primaries (Texas) are about six weeks away (March 1st).

            In the November elections, the Republicans will take the majority in the House (with about 255 seats) and the Senate (with about 53 seats).

            Republicans will win contested United States Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Arizona.  Because of candidate deficiencies, it is possible that the Republicans lose Senate races in Missouri and Georgia (again) that they should win, which will limit the scope of the victory.

            In the wake of the defeat of voting reform, the Democrats will run in 2022 partly on the issue of voter suppression, although it is unclear where or how such voter suppression has occurred or might occur.  Keep in mind, the congressional Democrats had originally intended to run on the BBB legislation, including votes in 2022 to extend some of the provisions.  Obviously, that plan is mostly out the window by now.

            At the State level, the Republicans currently have a 28-22 advantage with respect to governors.  It is likely that they will have that same advantage after November (there are 36 gubernatorial races in 2022).  They will likely lose Maryland (currently held by Larry Hogan) and Massachusetts (currently held by Charlie Baker) and may lose Georgia, where Team Trump has created a primary challenge by former Senator David Perdue to Governor Kemp.  The intensity of that Republican primary will create a path to victory for the Democratic nominee (Stacey Abrams).

            Possible Republican opportunities include governor’s seats in Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania currently held by Democrats.

            Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez will conclude that she prefers her current platform to the risk of losing a primary to Majority Leader Schumer (for context, New York’s filing deadline is April 7).

            After the midterm elections, Speaker Pelosi will announce her retirement.  Congressman Hakeem Jeffries will step in as the Democratic Leader in the House.

            After the midterm elections, President Biden will announce that he will not be running for president again.  In anticipation of this, potential candidates for the nomination will begin to make themselves obvious not later than the 3rdquarter of 2022.

            By the end of 2022, more than one Republican will create an exploratory committee to run for President and/or announce that they are running for President.

            It will become obvious this year that former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is running for president.  She deserves thoughtful consideration.

            The year will be marked by increasing stridency in rhetoric directed at Mr. Trump, as Democrats and the media try to tie him tightly to the Republicans.  The simple and unfortunate reality is that Team Biden and the national Democrats have a fairly Spartan record on which to run (inflation?  Border security?  COVID?  Afghanistan?).  As a practical matter, that means they will attempt to make the 2022 campaign (which has already begun) about Mr. Trump.

            We’ve already seen the first shots in this war, as Mr. Biden’s speech on January 6th was directed at the former president.  Expect more of that as the midterms come into focus.

            Mr. Trump’s aura of inevitability will be dimmed by his endorsements, some of whom will lose, some of whom will embarrass themselves and, by extension, their patron.

            Team Trump’s endorsement process will continue to be idiosyncratic and deliver suboptimal results (think Georgia and Pennsylvania).  As the cycle wears on, that’s going to get worse.  Eventually, Mr. Trump will not endorse Senate candidates who refuse to pledge to vote against Senator McConnell for Majority Leader.

            Mr. Trump will work against some Republican nominees in the 2022 cycle.

Mood music

            Inflation will continue to erode the value of wages and savings.  Expect an annual rate of at least 7 percent (again).  The Fed will increase rates four times this year, mostly in an effort to catch up to inflation.

            As we have noted before, there has been no net growth in the economy in almost three years, nor has there been any job growth in three years, yet we have expanded the money supply through both monetary and fiscal policy.  When the money supply is expanded and disconnected from wealth creation, currency devaluation (what we call “inflation”) is a necessary consequence.

            The inflation that shot through the economy in the 1970s and early 1980s was elemental in the destruction of three presidencies.  If the current cycle of inflation is not arrested soon, it will claim a fourth in 2024.

            The American people are pretty much over the virus.  The citizenry – ahead of the government as always -- has concluded that although COVID is a highly infectious respiratory disease that will infect everyone eventually, the risk to individuals is no longer excessive and the damage done by continued efforts to control the virus (lockdowns, school lockout, etc.) are now doing more harm than good.

            The Administration senses this as well, as they have started to acknowledge that there are differences between hospitalizations with COVID and for COVID.  Now that Team Biden has presided over more deaths than their predecessors, the CDC has also promised to reassess the number of deaths from COVID and those who died with COVID.

            Finally, faced with pushback from the judicial system, and having acknowledged back in August that vaccines don’t preclude transmission, and with the Omicron variant dropping efficacy rates somewhere into the 30%-50% range, the administration will (mostly) give up on large-scale vaccine mandates.

            Despite the efficacy of the vaccines dropping below the WHO threshold to be considered vaccines (50% effectiveness), the public health community will not acknowledge that the “vaccines” are not in fact “vaccines” that preclude transmission or uptake of the virus.

            It seems reasonable to expect that things will be pretty much back to normal with the appearance of warm weather in May.

            The Supreme Court in Dobbs will find (probably in June) that Roe v. Wade was overly broad and send abortion back to the States to decide.  About 40 States will pass legislation pretty quickly either protecting the unborn or ratifying the general approach of Roe.  In the remaining States, the issue will be contested for some time.

            There will be a lot of talk about how the decision in Dobbs is going to be a political windfall for the Democrats.  It won’t be.  Many Democrats are going to be uncomfortable attacking people for pro-life views, in large measure because some significant portion of Democrats in the United States are (still) Catholics with at least some vestigial attachments to Church doctrine.  Forcing them finally to choose between religious and political sentiments can only result in losing votes.  In the coming cycle, Democrats are not going to be in the marketplace for ways to lose votes.

            As always, weakness is provocative.  Either Russia, or China, or both, will accelerate their international hooliganism.  Team Biden will respond with  strongly worded condemnations.

Miscellaneous

            The Yankees will not win the World Series (again), which will extend their drought to 13 years, the longest in franchise history.  It will also mean that they would have only won one World Series in the last 22 years, again, the worst such stretch in franchise history.  The general manager (Brian Cashman) will not be fired.

            The Bills will win the Super Bowl.

            Olivia Rodrigo will win Best New Artist at the Grammys (as she should).

            The Giants, a proud franchise with 8 NFL championships, will lose at least 12 games in 2022, which will give them the worst cumulative record in the NFL since 2017.

            Growth in global sales of SUVs (at least in absolute numbers and probably as a percentage) will be greater than the growth in global sales of electric vehicles.  The media will probably ignore this.

            Parental choice and involvement in education will continue to grow as an issue, and parents (rather than educators) will start to populate school boards.  Homeschooling will continue to grow as a phenomena.

            Across a handful of cases, the Supreme Court will restrain the Chevron doctrine, which holds that the implementing agency’s interpretation of statutes applicable to them should be given deference.  It is going to turn out that judges think that judicial interpretation of statutes should be given greater deference (shocker).

            In anticipation of losing Congress and being led by a lame duck president, the national Democrats are likely to spend a portion of the year either minimizing or seeking to delegitimize the 2022 elections.  That is, of course, prefatory to efforts to delegitimize the Republican nominee in 2024.  The January 6th commission can be best be understood as part of this effort.

            Culture will continue to be upstream of politics and will continue to trump economics.  As a result, the next elected President of the United States will be the man or woman who can and will most energetically and effectively defend the traditions, institutions, and norms of the United States.

            Thank you for taking the time to read this.  As always, please do not hesitate to contact me with any thoughts, comments, or questions, and, please feel free to share this with others who might be interested.